In early 2013, AIB joined forces with the ESRI to generate the Housing Market Index for the Republic of Ireland. The index is a measure of the perception consumers have in relation to the Irish housing market as well as their house price expectations. The index, which is run on a three month rolling average, is based on a survey of at least 800 people across Ireland per month.
This month we have made some changes to ensure the survey remains up to date with your perception of the housing market as well as providing a more accurate reflection of current macroeconomic and housing market conditions. The survey to date was generated from answers to three key questions:
- Is it a good time to buy?
- What is the level of risk buying today?
- Is it a good time to sell?
Keen readers of the survey will notice that this results in an increase of over 40 points on the Q2 2016 figures. This is due to the increase in consumers who believe that it is a good time to sell, a decrease in the perception of risk of buying in the market today, and nearly 50% of consumers seeing today as a good time to buy.
Here are the main points from this quarter:
- Those who think it is a good time to sell – 37%, up from 32% in Q2 2016.
- Those who think there is ‘a great deal of risk in buying today’ – 29%, remains unchanged from Q2 2016.
- Average expected price changes in next year:
- Dublin – 3.9%
- Border / Midlands / West – 2.9%
- Rest of Country – 3.3%
- Concerns over income and affordability have decreased by 2% to 50% in Q3 2016.
- Increasing interest rates, changes in house prices and changes in family circumstances are other areas of concern for those surveyed.
Main reasons for not buying (outside of those satisfied with their present home):
- Cannot afford it 16%.
- Cannot get a mortgage 8%.
Below, you will find some of the key findings links to the main points in the Q3 2016 survey, along with the previous editions.
The information contained is a snapshot of sentiment in the market from the point of view of consumers and should not be taken as a recommendation.
Quarterly AIB/ESRI Housing Market Index Infograph page: