Historic FX & Interest Rates for 2024....

As expected, the final ECB Governing Council meeting of 2024 saw it cut interest rates for the fourth time this year. It reduced them by 25bps, with the Deposit rate lowered to 3.00%, while the Re-fi rate was decreased to 3.15%. The ECB commenced its easing cycle in June, and followed with rate cuts at its September and October meetings. Today’s decision by the ECB to cut rates was unanimous.

World economy continues to exhibit uneven growth. US remains an outperformer, with signs of weakening growth in the Eurozone. Core inflation remains sticky in most markets, particularly the UK, with risks still tilted to the upside for inflation.

The September meeting of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) saw the central bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. The target range for the Fed funds rate was reduced by 50bps to 4.75-5.00%. It marks the first rate change from the Fed in nine meetings. The decision by the FOMC to cut rates by 50bps was not unanimous, with one member (Bowman) preferring a 25bps reduction.

The November meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) saw the central bank lower Bank rate by 25bps to 4.75%. This was the second rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) in three meetings. Subsequent to this, the BoE cuts rates for the first time in August, following its rate tightening cycle, which had been in place since the end of 2021. 

Growth in Ireland’s key trading partners uneven, geopolitical risks to the fore. Irish economy expected to grow at a moderate pace in the coming years. Households remain cautious in spending patterns. US dollar dominance tested by macro trends.

The manu. PMI rose to 51.5 in Oct, consistent with an improvement in conditions in the sector. Output returned to growth and new orders rose for the first time since February. The serv. PMI fell to 53.8 in Oct, indicating a solid, albeit slower pace of expansion. New business, especially new export orders, rose sharply. However, inflationary pressures accelerated in the month

Renewed momentum in Irish residential property prices...