Economic Analysis

The fourth ECB Governing Council policy setting meeting of 2026 saw the central bank hike rates by 25bps. The deposit and refi rates were raised to 2.25% and 2.40%, respectively. This outcome was very much in line with market expectations, and marks the first change in policy since the ECB cut rates last June. It is the first rate hike since September 2023.

The manu. PMI rose to 54.9 in Apr., amid sustained gains in output, new orders and export orders. Business expectations eased markedly though, while input & output inflation surged Traditional industrial production contracted by 1.9% in Q1, and it was 3.4% lower YoY 

The global economy started 2026 on a strong footing. Indeed, US tariffs have not escalated to the extent expected post ‘Liberation Day’ in April 2025, and some measures were struck out, at least temporarily, by the US Supreme Court in early 2026. A key driver of this resilience has been the surge in AI-related investment, particularly in the US. 

The April policy setting meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) saw the central bank leave the Bank Rate unchanged today, at 3.75%. This represents the third successive meeting where the official rate has been left unaltered. This outcome was very much in line with market expectations. The most recent rate cut from the BoE occurred at its December meeting, when it lowered the Bank Rate by 25bps. This represented the fourth 25bps rate cut from the BoE last year. The BoE has lowered rates by 150bps in total since August 2024.

The April meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) saw the central bank leave interest rates unchanged. The target range for the Fed funds rate was maintained at 3.50–3.75%, for a third consecutive meeting. This outcome was very much in line with market expectations. Once again, Governor Miki Bowman was the sole dissenter, voting for a 25bps rate reduction.

Foreign Currency and Interest Rates from 2025

The Irish residential property market remains defined by tight supply as 2025 draws to a close. However, over the course of the year, there have been some encouraging signs in the suppy dynamics, albeit the outlook remains challenging. 

This Budget is set against an uncertain economic backdrop so far this year. GDP growth was robust in the early part of the year but has since moderated. The Chancellor had committed to not raising taxes materially further following last year’s hikes to national insurance (NI) on employer contributions, which among other measures raised £40bn. While the tax rises are largely to fill the hole in the fiscal rules, there are also net spending increases in the budget