Over recent months, US economic and trade policy has undergone a sharp shift, introducing significant tariffs that could reshape the landscape for Irish exporters. The EU and Ireland are now facing a baseline 15 per cent tariff on most exports to the US, a major increase from the virtually zero tariffs seen in early 2025.
While earlier threats of much higher tariffs have eased following a series of trade agreements, many exporting companies still face direct exposure, while others may be affected through their supply chains. It is still too early to see the full impact reflected in official data. The most immediate effect has been a surge in exports to the US, as firms accelerated shipments ahead of tariff implementation, temporarily boosting manufacturing output and trade volumes.
Private sector PMI surveys show firms are becoming more cautious about investment and hiring, while consumer confidence has dipped despite continued strong spending. The longer uncertainty persists, the greater the potential drag on overall economic performance.
Staying informed and flexible
In a changing trade environment, staying informed is essential. Business leaders should make it a priority to follow reliable news sources, economic updates and market research. Recent trade deals between the US, EU and other major partners have brought a degree of clarity, but policy remains fluid and subject to change. Understanding how tariffs could affect day-to-day operations is critical to making sound decisions.
Flexibility is equally important. Having the ability to adapt or adjust strategy as conditions evolve can help cushion potential impacts. It’s also worth distinguishing between short-term noise and longer-term signals. While the risk of extreme tariff outcomes has diminished, tariffs remain at their highest level in nearly a century on a global basis, so a measured, informed approach is vital.
Learning from experience
The current environment may feel familiar to many Irish businesses, as it echoes the preparations for Brexit just a few years ago. That experience has, in many ways, prepared companies for this moment. The rush to prepare for potential trade barriers and logistical challenges mirrors the steps many took in 2019 to mitigate the risks of a hard Brexit. While not an ideal situation, the lessons learned then remain highly relevant today.
A new era of trade barriers
The current scale of trade barriers is something not seen for decades. The last period of comparable tariffs in the US dates back to the 1930s, a very different time when economies were far less open to global trade. Although some of the most severe tariff scenarios have been avoided, overall US tariff levels are now estimated at around 16 per cent globally.
The real impact will depend on the nature of the products being exported and where the cost of tariffs ultimately falls. So far, US firms have largely absorbed the shock by running down stockpiles and delaying price increases. However, if there are many substitute products available, exporters may have to reduce prices to remain competitive, absorbing some of the tariff burden themselves.
In recent months, many companies have accelerated exports to build up stockpiles in the US. As these inventories unwind and tariffs are fully phased in, the underlying effects on trade flows, pricing and profitability will become clearer.
Working together and planning ahead
It’s also important to engage with wider support networks. Trade bodies and government agencies such as Enterprise Ireland play a crucial role in supporting Irish exporters and promoting them abroad. The Government has already announced a package of supports and additional measures may follow. Companies should stay informed about what assistance is available and take advantage of relevant programmes.
At a macro level, Ireland enters this period with a degree of resilience. Strong public finances, the build-up of sovereign wealth funds and relatively healthy household and corporate balance sheets provide important buffers against external shocks.
Conclusion
Periods of adjustment are part of a wider economic cycle. While there has been a recent move away from the free trade relationships that dominated global commerce over the past three decades, recent trade agreements suggest a partial stabilisation rather than a complete reversal of globalisation. Nonetheless, geopolitical risks remain elevated and the effects of recent uncertainty are still working their way through the economy.
For now, the best strategy for Irish business leaders is to stay informed, remain adaptable and plan for multiple scenarios. Change is inevitable, but with preparation and perspective, it can be managed effectively.
