Category:
Kieran McGeeney: History is written by the victor

15 Sep 2016
Posted in: Mayo GAA , Dublin GAA and County
“History is written by the victor”
(origin unknown)
As Sunday approaches and the column inches get filled, we hear
more and more theories and stories about what each team is doing and
why one will prevail over the other. At the same time, everybody is in
fact hedging their bets (me included, as you will read later) just in
case people ever find out that nasty secret about most experts. That
is, they really are no better at predicting the future than anybody
else a lot of the time (‘The Signal and the Noise’ by Nate Silver is
worth reading if this topic interests you). And once Sunday is over we
will be led to believe that what the victor did was all right and what
the loser did was all wrong. It brings me back to 2005, to what was in
fact one of Armagh’s more successful years but where eventually
everybody told us we were doing everything wrong.
So Armagh had one of its best years which included a National League
title, an Ulster title, and an All-Ireland semi-final which we only
lost by one point — not a bad run you would think. However not
everyone saw it that way, and in fact we were told in the days
following our loss that everything we were doing was all wrong, and
everything Tyrone was doing was all right! It definitely made you
wonder. Surely not everything we were doing could be that far wrong
and not everything they were doing was that perfect? So what is the
real truth behind defeat and victory?
The truth is there is no simple answer. There is no one
singular component or aspect of the game responsible for either.
Within each game played there are so many permutations that could
happen at any one point, it is difficult to pinpoint where exactly it
was won or lost. If it was just one thing surely would Mayo (to name
but one) not have discovered this before now and written a different
history for themselves in their quest for the Holy Grail?

Tactics, gameplans and the ability to deal with the ‘what ifs’ have
been drawn up for this weekend and practiced over the year. However,
how players react to any given situation or adversity is always hard
to predict. These “tactics” act as an outline to how the game should
be played but how this outline is filled in lies with the ability of
the player to adapt to that particular situation. So surely each team
and each set of players must be doing a lot of things right to get so
far in the competition and play amongst the top teams in the country.
So when you look across both teams and look at the common
denominators, you get your starting point for what can lead to
success.
So what common denominators do we have for Sunday’s game
between Dublin and Mayo? We can see both teams have the basics you
need to get to the table in a high-movement contact sport. They are
both physically strong, very fit, and very aggressive in how they play
and how they impose their game on their opponents. They both feel
equally adept at the kicking game as they do the running game, so both
can adapt to whatever style is thrown at them or whatever style must
be incorporated to break down their opponents.
They have proven match-winners in Diarmuid Connolly, Bernard
Brogan and Kevin McManamon for Dublin, while Aidan O’Shea, Andy Moran
and Cillian O’Connor can do likewise for Mayo. They also have great
defenders like Lee Keegan, Colm Boyle and Keith Higgins on one side
and James McCarthy, Jonny Cooper and Philly McMahon on the other. In
the middle, they both have great endurance players in Seamus O’Shea
and Donal Vaughan against Michael Darragh Macauley and Brian Fenton.

Although Dublin’s year has been one of consistency and great results
and the story that everything that they are doing is right, Mayo’s has
been somewhat different. The players took a huge chance in looking for
a change of management and in fairness to all involved (especially the
outgoing management), everybody put the good of the county first, bit
their tongues and moved in the one direction. A couple of bad results
in the league and the stories started that everything the new
management was doing wasn’t right but then that changed with better
results at the end of the league. That changed again when Galway beat
them and was revised once more after the Tyrone game. Now they find
themselves back against a team that they traditionally do very well
against, even in recent times.
So what will the story be after Sunday? Who will write their
story in the history books? A Dublin team aiming to become the
county’s best ever or a Mayo side breaking that glass ceiling they’ve
been under for65 years. All in all, you have what looks like a cracker
in store for Sunday. The feeling out there is that Mayo stand little
or no chance against the juggernaut of the Boys in Blue but, like the
last time we discussed
this, all is not what it appears to be. So what do the numbers
tell us this time (and thanks again to Brian from BMAC for these
stats)?
So for all the nerds out there this is what we see. Having
examined the scorelines of all games in the All-Ireland series from
quarter-final onwards since 2011, we can see that Dublin and Mayo have
both played 16 games during this timeframe. The Dubs winning 13,
drawing 1 and losing 2 — scoring on average 19.3 points and conceding
15.4; Mayo have won 9, drew 2 and lost 5 — scoring on average 19.0 and
conceding 16.7.
In 2016 the teams have moved in different directions, as Dublin have scored more (20.0 on average) and conceded more (16.5), whereas Mayo have scored less (16.0 on average) and conceded less (13.0). So is the 'Mayo 2016’ defence strong enough to withhold the improved ’Dublin 2016' attack?
In three finals appearances, Dublin have averaged 15
points (1-12) and conceded on average 13.3 (Goals 0.7- Points 11.3).
Mayo in two final appearances have also averaged 15 points (Goals 0.5
- Points 13.5) but conceded 17.5 on average (2-11.5). Mayo's final
problems seem to centre around goals. In their last two final
appearances, they have only scored one (2013 v Dublin) but conceded
two in each game (2012 v Donegal and 2013 v Dublin). So unless Mayo
can keep the goals out it looks like Dublin should shade it, but like
most good analysts out there I will hedge my bets and say that, for a
change, Mayo seem to have a bit of luck on their side — even though it
hasn’t been their strongest year performance wise. And sometimes it is
better to be lucky than good on final day.
In conclusion it’s worth mentioning that Sunday’s game is a
culmination of many nights’ of training and effort from these young
men, and a day that will live forever in their memories. And,
depending on how the result goes, players and management will get
lauded for their victory or possibly abused for their defeat. However,
as I have tried to explain, there is not a huge difference in how both
got to the end of this journey and both teams deserve our respect and
admiration for stepping into the arena. Regardless of how history
views them after Sunday they all still are our local heroes and are
inspiring our next generation of players, supporters and
volunteers.

On that note I want to leave you with an actual player’s thought. When thinking of writing this for Sunday, I asked a few players what winning an All-Ireland might mean to them and I got some fantastic answers. This is one:
“To win an All-Ireland would be the realisation of years of dreams since Armagh started winning Ulsters in 1999/2000. Satisfaction that you have brought so much joy and memories to your loved ones, family, friends, the people of your village and the people of your county. Content that you have inspired the next generation and provided a lifetime of dreams to them. Also quietly satisfied that you have been able to perform on that stage and have come out on top. The satisfaction that everybody is looking up at you because nobody could match or better you that year.”